Aniline outlook shows growth

Aniline and its derivatives have shown the strongest growth rates of all the downstream benzene products in recent years, according to Chuck Venezia, vice president of benzene and derivatives at consultancy DeWitt.

Speaking at the DeWitt petro­chemical conference in Paris, France, Venezia forecast that aniline production will grow globally by 5.2%/year up to 2008, fuelled by strong demand from the methylene diphenyl diisocyanate and polyurethane sector, which represents 85% of total aniline offtake.

Despite surging benzene prices, demand has remained strong for housing, automobiles and other durable goods. If aniline markets continue to grow, DeWitt predicts that by the end of 2008, fresh capacity will be needed. Venezia says no announcements have been made so far and, consequently, any 2008 deadline will be missed, given the planning that has to go into a plant’s construction.

Plant expansions are expected rather than new projects, including a 30 000-40 000 tonne/year increase at Quimigal, Portugal. Bayer is hiking capacity in Antwerp, Belgium, by 25 000 tonne/year, with completion scheduled by 2006. Czech-based Borsodchem-MCHZ is also boosting output to 150 000 tonne/year by mid-2005. Debottlenecking in China is possible.

Asia will become the largest regional producer of another benzene derivative, cumene, by 2006, manufacturing 4m tonne/year and surpassing the US. While Asian capacity will rise by 4.3%/year and South American capacity by 7.3%/year, both North America and eastern Europe will see capacity reductions. Cumene supply has already tightened globally, although exports out of China have grown from 29 000 tonne in 2H 2003 to 41 000 tonne in 1H 2004. US inventories actually reached a record low in Q4 last year, partly due to producers’ unwillingness to buy higher-priced benzene.

Venezia says cumene exports out of the US and Europe will rise to support downstream phenol expansions in Asia, which are not matched by a rise in cumene capacity. Consequently, global utilisation rates will remain high for cumene.