Negative forecasts, to be checked in the short term
All along 2008 the production of the sector should have decreased by 3.5% if compared to December 2007, as well as abroad sales by 3.4% and imports by 1.9%. Consequently, theoretical domestic market value and trade balance (representing anyhow a large surplus for Italy) should have lost, respectively, 3.2 and 3.8 percentage points.
In this case, the results reflect the deep crisis that has been hitting the global markets since the second half of last year, in particularly starting from September-October, a concern shared by Italian and major foreign competing manufacturers.
As a matter of fact, up to June 2008 (without considering "moulds" customs code, which showed a constant negative trend starting from January 2008), abroad sales of plastics and rubber machinery were still increasing by 7.4% in respect of the same month of 2007.
In addition to the tough fall for the mould sales the one of injection moulding machines can also be seen (even if, in part, for this last specific branch problems arose before the autumn global economy slow down). A cut of around 20% in export can be predicted for both these items.
As for 2009 outlook, any surmise would be bold and it is likely, not to say almost sure, that the running year will close again with a downturn. To quantify or to assume the decrease it would be a very difficult exercise or really too early to be done, therefore it is necessary to wait some months in order to have a more clear overview.
In such an unsettled context, the first possible check will be offered on the occasion of the triennial international exhibition PLAST'09, scheduled on March 24-28, 2009 in FieraMilano fairground, which will be attended by 1,200 exhibitors coming from over 40 countries. As a matter of fact, within and during the event, it will be clear if the demand/offer ratio might record the desirable first signals of turnabout, especially for the Italian manufacturers, who still and anyhow are among the very first sectoral players in the world.
All along 2008 the production of the sector should have decreased by 3.5% if compared to December 2007, as well as abroad sales by 3.4% and imports by 1.9%. Consequently, theoretical domestic market value and trade balance (representing anyhow a large surplus for Italy) should have lost, respectively, 3.2 and 3.8 percentage points.