Basell’s Volker Trautz says domestic capacity will grow in line with demand

Exports of polyolefins to China are unlikely to grow significantly in the future, according to Volker Trautz, president and chief executive of Basell. Speaking at the NPE exhibition in Chicago last week, Trautz cautioned: "China’s appetite for importing polyolefins may be peaking." He said: "China’s domestic capacity will grow in line with its domestic demand… and exports to China may be as big now as they will get."

According to figures from Tecnon and Basell, polyethylene imports into China actually peaked in 2002 at around 5 million tonnes and have stabilised just below this amount for the past four years. Declines are forecast for the next three years and the proportion of the total consumption that is imported into the country is expected to tumble from around 60% in 2002 to 30% in 2009. The polypropylene picture is slightly different, with imports predicted to rise very slightly to around 3.7 million in 2008 and then decline beyond this. Again these imports are expected to be approximately 30% of China’s total consumption by the end of the decade.

Chinese annual consumption figures for PE and PP in China are each expected to be around the 12 million tonne mark by 2010. Commenting on the expected peak in imports, Trautz warned: "It is important to take a cautious and careful look at China in the medium to long term."